中国本土のCOVID-19のトレンド：データに基づく分析

タイトル: Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemic in Mainland China During December 31 2021-December 6 2022

概要: BackgroundThe recent COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China is an important issue for studying the prevention and disease control measures and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Following our previous study for the mainland China epidemic during December 31 2021 to 30 April 2022, this paper studies and compares the the mainland China epidemic during December 31 2021 to December 6, 2022. MethodsUsing differential equations and real word data (both domestic and foreign input infected individuals) modelings and simulates COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China during May 1 2022 to December 6 2022, estimates the transmission rates, the recovery rates, the blocking rates to the symptomatic and the asymptomatic infections, and the died rate of the symptomatic infected individuals. The transmission rates and the recovery rates of the foreign input COVID-19 infected individuals in mainland China have also been studied. Using virtual simulations predict the outcomes of the epidemics. ResultsThe simulation results were in good agreement with the real word data. O_LIThe average input transmission rate of the foreign input symptomatic infection individuals was much lower than the average transmission rates of the symptomatic infection causing by the mainland symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. C_LIO_LIThe average input transmission rate of the foreign input asymptomatic infection individuals was was much lower than the average transmission rate of the asymptomatic infection causing by the mainland symptomatic individuals. C_LIO_LIThe average recovery rates of the foreign input COVID-19 symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals were much higher than the average recovery rates of the mainland symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals. C_LI For the mainland epidemic simulations: O_LIIf kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, the death rate and the blocking rates on day 181 (June 30, 2022), the numbers of the current symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals would reduce to about one on day 270 (September 27, 2022). C_LIO_LIIf kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, the death rate and the blocking rates on day 340 (December 6, 2022) until day 380 (January 15, 2023), the numbers of the current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would increase to 37 999 and 224 945, respectively, the cumulative death individuals would increase from 599 to 616. C_LIO_LIIf kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates on day 340, but decreased the blocking rates to 34% and select the death rate to equal to the average death rate during days 104-150, then the simulation showed that on day 380, the numbers of current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would increase to about 323 559 095 and 481 270 717, respectively, and the cumulative death individuals would reach about 1 055 607. C_LI For the foreign input epidemic simulations: O_LIIf kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, and the blocking rates day 242 (August 30, 2022), until day 340, the numbers of the current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would decrease to 13 and 430, respectively. C_LIO_LIIf kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, and the blocking rates on day 340 until day 380 (January 15, 2023), the numbers of the current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would decrease and increase to 168 and 1952, respectively. C_LIO_LIRecommendations on COVID-19 epidemic base on WHOs technic guidelines and HBV infection experiment in Chimpanzees are provided. C_LI ConclusionsO_LIFor the mainland individuals epidemic, keeping the blocking rates of over 86% and 93% to the symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, and the recovery rates of over 0.119 and 0.112 to the symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals may make the numbers of the current symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals to decrease to very low levels in three months. C_LIO_LIFor the foreign input individuals epidemic, keeping the transmission rates of under 0.07 to the symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, and the recovery rates of over 0.125 and 0.099 to the symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals may make the numbers of the current symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals to decrease to very low levels in four months. C_LIO_LIAfter December 6 2022, decreasing the blocking rates of under 34% to the symptomatic and asymptomatic infections may cause over 1100 millions individuals COVID-19 infections and over one million COVID-19 infected individuals death. C_LIO_LIIt is necessary that administrations implement strict prevent and control strategies to prevent the spread of new COVID-19 variants. C_LI