Managing Technology for Environmental Solutions

Our planet is facing serious problems that affect the environment, such as the loss of species, climate change, and the increased risk of diseases. New technologies could help us tackle these issues, such as ways to capture carbon to fight climate change, methods to help vulnerable species adapt, and new processes for developing vaccines. However, creating and using these technologies is often uncertain and can fail for various reasons.

#Why Technologies Fail

There are two main reasons why Technology Development can go wrong. First, many projects in research and development (R&D) don’t succeed. Only a small part, about 20%, of all pharmaceutical projects end up being successful. This means that even with effort put into creating new technologies, there is a high chance that they may not work out.

Second, even when a technology is developed, it is hard to predict what effect it will have once it is used. This is especially true when the technology interacts with complex systems, such as Ecosystems. Because of these uncertainties during both development and Deployment, decision-makers often struggle with how long to keep investing in new technologies. They need a way to determine when it might be better to stop investing.

#A Smart Approach to Decision-Making

To help with this decision-making problem, we can use a method called Adaptive Management, which uses insights from artificial intelligence. This method helps us create guidelines for how to invest in new technologies based on different factors including the technology itself and the specific system it will impact.

This approach can improve planning by helping to figure out the best time to deploy new technologies to maximize benefits while considering uncertainties. As an example, we can focus on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, which is vital for biodiversity but is under threat from climate change and other pressures.

#Planning Technology Development

To decide how long we should work on a technology, we must forecast two things: whether the technology will be developed successfully and what benefits it will provide if it is used. However, current research lacks reliable methods to predict these outcomes effectively. While there are models that consider the uncertainty in technology development, they often assume a fixed structure for how technologies develop. In reality, uncertainties can lead to poor decisions.

Even when uncertainties in development are taken into account, not addressing uncertainties about what happens after deployment can result in negative results. For instance, a type of fish hook designed to protect sea turtles ended up capturing many endangered sharks instead.

#Using Adaptive Management

Adaptive management is a commonly recommended method in ecology to handle systems that are constantly changing and uncertain. By using this framework, we can find the best ways to invest in developing and deploying technologies. It allows us to maximize expected benefits over time, while also taking into account the uncertain responses of the system to management actions.

In this case, we consider technology development and deployment as two connected problems and solve them using a structured approach. First, we allocate resources to developing a technology, even when there is uncertainty in predicting its success. The outcome of this part relies on the expected benefits we hope to gain from using the technology.

#Real-World Example: The Great Barrier Reef

The Great Barrier Reef is a crucial ecosystem that supports many marine species and has significant economic value. However, it faces many threats, such as climate change and pollution. Developing new technologies to protect this ecosystem could help delay or prevent its collapse.

In the planning stage, it is crucial to acknowledge the costs associated with developing and deploying technologies. Average costs for technology development are around $5 million AUD per year, while deployment costs can reach about $10 million AUD per year. These numbers highlight the importance of making informed decisions about when to invest.

#Modeling Technology Development

We can model the development of a new technology as a system that transitions from not ready to ready. As we develop the technology, we receive feedback on its success. This feedback helps us adjust our beliefs about whether the technology will succeed or fail.

The optimal strategy considers the cost of development and expected benefits from deployment. If the technology takes too long and shows signs of failing, it might be best to stop investing. The key is to find the right balance between the potential success of the technology and the costs involved.

#Making Deployment Decisions

Once we have a technology ready for use, the next challenge is to decide how and when to deploy it. The benefits we gain from deploying the technology depend on how effective it is in addressing the problems at hand. We also need to keep in mind that the ecosystem's response to the technology is uncertain.

By employing adaptive management for the deployment phase, we can figure out the best times to deploy the technology based on the current health of the ecosystem and the expected benefits. This decision process allows us to maximize the advantages of deploying the technology while also considering its effectiveness.

#The Influence of Beliefs

The beliefs decision-makers hold about the technology's potential impact play a major role in determining deployment strategies. If a decision-maker believes strongly that the technology can restore and protect an ecosystem, they are more likely to act on that belief. Conversely, if they doubt the technology's effectiveness, they may hesitate to deploy it.

The Great Barrier Reef case illustrates that, when the technology is believed to be beneficial, deploying it might make sense. If the ecosystem shows no improvement after several attempts at deployment, it may be wise to stop using that technology.

#Lessons Learned

Our approach allows us to define a maximum time limit for technology development, which is determined by various factors such as the perceived likelihood of success and the costs involved. This time limit provides decision-makers with a clear indicator of when they should consider reallocating their resources to other projects.

By addressing the uncertainties inherent in R&D, we fill a gap in current literature and provide a more robust decision-making framework. This framework is beneficial for a wide range of fields, including biodiversity conservation and technology development.

#Conclusion

In summary, our findings underline the need for a systematic approach to managing the development and deployment of new technologies, especially in complex ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef. By employing adaptive management, we can better allocate limited resources and enhance the resilience of vital ecosystems. As we continue to face pressing environmental challenges, strategies like these will be essential for guiding investments in technology that can lead to meaningful and lasting benefits.