Satellite Data Driving Agricultural Change in Rwanda

High-resolution satellite images are changing the way we look at farming. They can help us keep track of Crop Yields, especially in places like Rwanda, where farmers often struggle to grow enough food. By looking at data from 15,000 villages, we can see which areas are doing well and which are lagging behind in growing Maize, a staple crop. The goal is to double Productivity by 2030 and ensure that nobody gets left out.

#Addressing Hunger: The Big Goal

One of the big challenges we face globally is hunger. The world has set specific goals to end hunger and promote sustainable farming by 2030. This is called Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2). Small farmers play a big role in achieving this goal, as highlighted in SDG target 2.3, which aims to double their productivity. The tricky part is that even with indicators to measure this, it has been hard to track progress accurately. There are still many data gaps that make it tough to see who benefits from the progress being made and who is still falling behind.

#The Power of Satellites in Agriculture

Using satellites to monitor crop growth could be the answer. Satellite technology has improved, allowing us to predict crop yields with great detail. Although we've seen some successful examples, many small farms globally still lack the tools to effectively monitor their crops. The need for better crop monitoring is clear, especially in smallholder farming systems.

For Rwanda, we have created precise time series data that shows maize cover and productivity at a detailed level. With a resolution of just 10 meters and updated seasonally, this data can help detect trends and performance across the thousands of villages in Rwanda. This information could be useful for other countries and crops, too.

#Tracking Progress with Satellite Data

Current satellite monitoring methods show that maize yields in Rwanda are not meeting the targets needed to double productivity by 2030. Even with national policies and efforts in place, the data reveals a gap between what is being aimed for and what is actually being achieved.

For instance, the national average maize yield has been assessed, and it shows that Rwanda is falling short, with only a small portion of villages on track to meet these targets. Some regions, like the Eastern Province and central Western Province, are making progress, while others are struggling to keep up. It's a mixed bag, and it’s clear some areas will need more support.

#The Disparity in Yields

While some villages are achieving notable increases in maize yields, there are still significant inequalities. The gap between the highest and lowest producing villages has been increasing, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although recent data indicates this gap might be closing, it’s still a reminder that we have a long way to go. Right now, the highest yielding villages see average yields about 2.4 times greater than the lowest yielding villages.

#Identifying Solutions for Equity

Several scenarios consider how to improve maize productivity and address the inequalities that exist. If we continue down the current path, we might only see a slight increase in national average maize yield by 2030, with only a small percentage of villages likely to double their productivity. This shows that we need to think outside the box to see real changes, focusing on targeted interventions that could lead to better outcomes for everyone.

One approach would be to improve yields uniformly across all villages, which could help reduce inequalities. Another method could focus on raising yields in the lower-performing areas, allowing them to catch up with their more productive neighbors. Balancing these two strategies could lead to more overall progress while ensuring that everyone benefits.

#The Cost of Improving Yields

To reach the goals set out in SDG 2, it’s estimated that it would cost around $33 billion each year. A large portion of this cost would need to come from national budgets. However, collecting the necessary data to effectively monitor progress towards these goals has been a challenge due to lack of funding.

The good news? Satellite monitoring can help reduce costs while providing valuable data. In Rwanda, the system we have created allows for near real-time monitoring of agricultural production for just $20 per season. This kind of low-cost access could be implemented in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa too.

#Historical Context: Learning from the Past

We should look back to past agricultural revolutions to understand where we stand today. The Green Revolution in the 20th century saw significant increases in crop yields globally, but unfortunately, many African countries did not benefit as much from those advancements. If we repeat the mistakes of the past by overlooking the needs of smaller farmers, we risk leaving many behind yet again.

Targeted investment in research, infrastructure, and policies is crucial for smallholder farmers. By identifying the systems at risk of being left behind, we can work to ensure that progress is inclusive and widespread.

#Finding Balance in Agricultural Policy

As we develop agricultural policies, it’s essential to understand that reaching equality in productivity and meeting national targets can go hand in hand. Policymakers face choices on how to use limited resources effectively.

For instance, focusing on equal yield growth across the country may seem easier to monitor, but it could also maintain existing disparities. On the other hand, directing resources to low-yield villages may yield greater benefits for the country as a whole, leading to economic growth and poverty reduction.

#Looking Ahead: The Role of Technology in Agriculture

High-tech solutions need to play a role in closing the yield gap. Differences in financing, institutions, and support systems make it challenging for smallholder farmers to adapt to new farming methods. Researchers can help policymakers identify which interventions to invest in to achieve the desired growth rates.

Monitoring systems based on detailed satellite data can provide strong support for evidence-based decisions. While this monitoring focuses largely on maize, future efforts should also consider other crops to improve food security and nutritional diversity.

#Hoping for a Brighter Future

By bringing together scientists, policymakers, and local organizations, we can work toward reaching agricultural development goals that will benefit everyone. With new technologies and data analysis, we have the potential to provide support in ways that may seem far-fetched today.

#The Importance of Gathering Data

In our research, we used high-resolution data to track maize yields in Rwanda. With a wealth of information from thousands of farmers, we created models to predict land use and yields accurately. By grouping yields by village, we made the data easier to understand and analyze. This approach allowed us to present a clearer picture of productivity and identify areas needing more attention.

Rwanda's maize is usually grown in two seasons: from September to February and from March to June. By calculating an annual yield based on seasonal averages, we can better assess productivity and monitor progress towards set goals.

#The Road to Improvement

Tracking changes in maize productivity from 2019 to 2024 gives us an idea of where we stand. By looking at trends, we can understand if the country is moving closer to meeting SDG 2.3.

When examining yields by village, we learned that equality among producers is a critical measure. By comparing high and low yields, we can see the disparities in output and target our efforts accordingly.

#Acknowledging Limitations

While the outlook may seem promising, there are limitations due to biophysical factors that can cap yield potential. When we evaluated data against the highest observed maize yields in each agro-ecological zone, it became clear that Rwanda may not meet its goals without significant changes.

However, some studies indicate that under the right conditions, it's possible to achieve higher yields with better crop management and inputs. This suggests that with the right focus and investment, higher productivity is achievable.

#Final Thoughts: A Call to Action

To succeed, concerted efforts must be made in developing effective agricultural policies. The gaps in financing and institutions remain significant barriers for many farmers. Researchers and policymakers need to work together to identify the most effective strategies to support smallholder farmers and improve overall productivity.

By leveraging new technologies and focusing on data-driven decision making, we can help Rwanda-and other similar countries-better track agricultural progress. With the right investment, resources, and commitment, the future of farming can be bright. Let’s roll up our sleeves and get to work!