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The Evolution of Urban Growth in America

Examining how U.S. cities have changed from 1900 to 2015.

Keith Burghardt, Johannes H. Uhl, Kristina Lerman, Stefan Leyk

― 5 min read


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Cities in the United States have grown a lot over the past century, but how this growth has happened is still a bit of a mystery. We often hear about cities getting bigger, but the details about how their buildings, roads, and overall layout change over time is not something discussed at dinner parties. That's where the numbers come in, shedding light on the trends that shape our urban landscapes.

The Mystery of City Growth

Imagine a city in 1900. It probably looks very different from the same city in 2015. Back in 1900, there were less tall buildings, fewer cars, and the streets were not as crowded. Fast forward to today, and everything seems to have expanded horizontally instead of vertically. But why do some cities spread out more than others? What factors influence this growth?

Researchers have been scratching their heads trying to understand these questions, but there hasn't been much data to dig into until recently. The lack of historical data made it difficult to see how cities grew over time.

What Is Scaling in Cities?

Scaling, in this case, refers to how different aspects of a city, like the number of buildings or the length of roads, relate to its population size. When a city gets bigger, we expect certain features to grow at different rates. For example, do more people mean more roads? Often, yes, but not always.

If you think about it, it's kind of like baking a cake. If you make a bigger cake, you need more ingredients, right? But sometimes, you might not need twice the frosting for twice the cake. It's the same with how cities grow—some things scale up nicely, while others don’t.

The Data Behind Urban Growth

To figure this out, recent research used a treasure trove of data from various sources about U.S. cities from 1900 to 2015. These sources included building footprints, road networks, and local population statistics. By analyzing this data across more than 850 metropolitan areas, researchers could finally see some patterns in how cities change over time.

The findings were surprising, and not just for city planners. The research revealed that as cities grow, they often become less dense. This means more space for people, but also more land is developed for fewer residents—a little like spreading out at a picnic until there’s too much blanket on the grass.

Three Key Patterns in Urban Growth

From this extensive analysis, three main patterns emerged:

  1. Decreased Density: In many cities, especially in the last few decades, the population has spread out, leading to a decrease in density. This means that as cities grow, they might not fill up the space as efficiently as before. Picture people stretching out on a couch instead of sitting close together.

  2. Size Matters: Generally, larger cities do not grow as quickly in terms of certain features compared to smaller ones. This means that while big cities might have more people, they are not necessarily expanding their roadways and buildings at the same rate. It's like a giant at a buffet—it can take a lot of food, but doesn’t always eat as fast as the smaller folks.

  3. Neighborhood Similarities: Interestingly, cities that are nearby tend to have similar growth patterns. This could be due to shared resources, planning regulations, or even cultural influences. So, if one city decides to build more parks, the neighboring city might follow suit, almost like a friendly competition of who can be more livable.

Urban Sprawl: A Concern

While city growth can bring advantages, it also raises concerns, especially regarding sustainability. The spread of Urban Areas into undeveloped land can disrupt local ecosystems. Think of it as a game of Tetris—once you start fitting blocks into the gaps, it doesn’t take long before you run out of space for the next piece.

The increase in house sizes and expansion of urban areas means more resources are being used. Bigger houses need more building material, and more roads require more maintenance. It's as if people are building their own little kingdoms, but at what cost to the environment?

Challenges of Urban Growth Analysis

Analyzing how cities evolve comes with its own set of challenges. One major issue is defining city boundaries over time. As cities grow, their edges can blend into neighboring areas making it hard to tell where one city ends and another begins.

Also, data quality varies. Some cities have detailed records, while others have gaps. Just like your favorite Netflix series occasionally has a random plot hole, city data can also have holes that make analysis difficult.

The Future of Urban Planning

These findings are significant for city planners and those who care about how urban areas develop. It suggests that today’s urban growth patterns could influence how future cities are built. Rather than taking a one-size-fits-all approach, planners may need to consider local factors like geography, climate, and population dynamics.

Imagine if every city's growth could be tailored like a custom suit; some need more room for movement, while others may need a tighter fit. Planners might need to rethink strategies for handling urban sprawl in different regions rather than applying the same solutions everywhere.

Conclusion: The Journey of Cities

The evolution of cities is a complex process filled with twists and turns. Understanding these patterns not only helps in planning better urban spaces but also contributes to broader discussions on sustainability and the use of resources.

As we look to the future, remembering the past can guide us in making better choices for urban living. Who knows, with a bit of foresight, we might just create cities that are not only larger but also smarter and more environmentally friendly.

So, as you stroll through your city, take a moment to appreciate the layers of history beneath your feet—each road, each building, each park tells a story about who we are and how we’ve grown. And that, my friends, is quite the story to tell!

Original Source

Title: Universal Patterns in the Long-term Growth of Urban Infrastructure in U.S. Cities from 1900 to 2015

Abstract: Despite the rapid growth of cities in the past century, our quantitative, in-depth understanding of how cities grow remains limited due to a consistent lack of historical data. Thus, the scaling laws between a city's features and its population as they evolve over time, known as temporal city scaling, is under-explored, especially for time periods spanning multiple decades. In this paper, we leverage novel data sources such as the Historical Settlement Data Compilation for the U.S. (HISDAC-US), and analyze the temporal scaling laws of developed area, building indoor area, building footprint area, and road length and other road network statistics for nearly all metropolitan areas in the U.S. from 1900 to 2015. We find that scaling exponents vary dramatically between cities as a function of their size and location. Three notable patterns emerge. First, scaling law exponents imply many, but not all, metropolitan areas are becoming less dense and indoor area per capita increases as cities grow, in contrast to expectations. Second, larger cities tend to have a smaller scaling exponent than smaller cities. Third, scaling exponents (and growth patterns) are similar between nearby cities. These results show a long-term trend that could harm urban sustainability as previously dense populations are rapidly spreading out into undeveloped land. Moreover, the regional similarity of long-term urban growth patterns implies that city evolution and sustainability patterns are more interconnected than prior research has suggested. These results help urban planners and scientists understand universal, long-term patterns of city growth across the US.

Authors: Keith Burghardt, Johannes H. Uhl, Kristina Lerman, Stefan Leyk

Last Update: 2024-12-17 00:00:00

Language: English

Source URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.13181

Source PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.13181

Licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Changes: This summary was created with assistance from AI and may have inaccuracies. For accurate information, please refer to the original source documents linked here.

Thank you to arxiv for use of its open access interoperability.

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