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Understanding Polygenic Risk Scores and Rare Variants

A look into how polygenic risk scores improve health predictions.

Jacob Williams, Tony Chen, Xing Hua, Wendy Wong, Kai Yu, Peter Kraft, Xihao Li, Haoyu Zhang

― 6 min read


RICE and Genetic Risk RICE and Genetic Risk Assessment variants for better health predictions. RICE integrates common and rare
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When it comes to our health, genetics can feel like a mysterious jigsaw puzzle. You might have heard about Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS), a tool that tries to put some of these pieces together to predict our chances of developing certain traits or diseases. Think of it as having a crystal ball that uses our DNA to give us a heads-up about what might be coming our way in the health department.

What are Polygenic Risk Scores?

Polygenic risk scores are numbers that sum up the effects of many tiny genetic variations in our DNA. Instead of just looking at one gene, they consider lots of them. This is important because many traits – like whether you’ll be the next marathon champion or if you’re at risk of developing a certain disease – don’t depend on a single gene. Instead, they’re influenced by many genes working together, like a choir where every member plays a role.

Why Do We Care About Them?

Using PRS has great potential in health care. Imagine going to your doctor, and instead of just getting a general check-up, your doctor has a detailed score about your Genetic Risks for conditions like heart disease or diabetes. This can help them give you personalized advice on how to stay healthy. If you find out you’re at higher risk for a condition, you might start exercising more, changing your diet, or getting check-ups more often.

The Trouble with Rare Variants

Most of the existing methods that calculate these scores focus on common genetic variations that are found in many people. Why? Because these common variations are easier to study – they show up more in large research studies. But there’s a twist! There are also rare genetic variants that can have a big impact on health, but they often don’t get the attention they deserve.

Many researchers think ignoring these rare variants is a mistake. While they might be rare, when combined with other rare variants, they could create a significant risk that can’t be overlooked. It’s a classic case of “the more, the merrier” – even if the “more” is a bit obscure.

Meeting RICE: An Innovative Approach

To deal with this oversight, some clever minds developed RICE, which stands for “polygenic Risk predictions Integrating Common and rarE variants.” Quite a mouthful, right? But RICE is designed to incorporate both common and rare variants into one tidy package.

RICE uses fancy techniques to analyze genetic data more effectively. It combines different methods to create a score that reflects both the common and rare genetic variants in an individual’s DNA. The goal? To provide a more accurate picture of a person’s genetic risk and make predictions even better.

How Does RICE Work?

The RICE framework operates in three steps, kind of like a cooking recipe.

  1. Mixing Common Variants: The first step combines several existing PRS methods focused on common variants into one single score. It’s like taking the best of various recipes and blending them to create a super tasty dish.

  2. Finding Rare Variants: In the second step, RICE identifies significant rare variant sets conditioned on the common variant score. So, after figuring out how common variants work, it looks at the rare ones to see if they add anything extra to the overall score. It’s like adding secret spices to your dish that you didn’t even know you needed.

  3. Bringing It All Together: Finally, RICE combines everything in a regression model that takes into account other factors, like age and sex. This is like making sure that everyone at the dinner table enjoys the meal, not just the kids or the adults.

Testing RICE: The Results Are In!

The researchers tested RICE using a huge amount of data from real people – a whopping 361,939 individuals, in fact! They didn’t just stick to one group of people; they looked at various ancestries, including people from Africa, Europe, India, and the Americas. This is important because genetic risks can differ across populations, and we want to make sure everyone gets a fair shake.

When they ran their tests, RICE showed impressive results! It significantly improved the predictive accuracy of PRS, meaning it could better identify people at risk for certain Health Conditions. Who doesn’t want a clearer warning about health issues on the horizon?

Why Rare Variants Matter

So, why should we care about rare variants? Well, these little guys can pack a punch when it comes to risk. Although they are rare individually, when you put a bunch of them together, they can contribute significantly to disease risk. If we ignore them, we might miss out on real health insights.

Take, for example, rare mutations in genes like BRCA1, which is known to increase the risk of breast cancer. These types of rare variants can be game-changers for risk assessment and prevention strategies. They might be a small club, but they’re a mighty one!

Testing the Waters: Real Data Analysis

When RICE was applied to actual data, especially for traits like body mass index (BMI), cholesterol levels, and even diseases like diabetes and cancer, it performed brilliantly. The researchers found that incorporating rare variants led to even better predictions for traits like cholesterol. This means that if you have certain rare variants, RICE can help you understand how they could affect your health.

So, What’s the Bottom Line?

By integrating both common and rare variants, RICE offers a more comprehensive view of genetic risks. It allows for better risk prediction and a deeper understanding of health conditions that influence a large number of people. Think of it as a health superhero in the world of genetics, swooping in to save the day for all those who might be slipping through the cracks.

Not only does RICE enhance our knowledge of genetic risk, but it also promotes personalized health care. Imagine a future where your doctor has the tools to help tailor your health plan based on your unique genetic makeup. That’s where science is heading, and it’s pretty exciting!

The Future of PRS and Personalized Health

In conclusion, PRS is a powerful tool for predicting health risks based on genetics. While we’ve focused heavily on common variants in the past, it’s clear that rare variants should not be underestimated. No longer should we leave the rarities out of the mix. With methods like RICE, we’re on our way to getting a richer understanding of our genetic backgrounds.

As technology and research continue to advance, there’s hope that we will unlock even more secrets of our DNA. This could lead to medical breakthroughs that help improve lives and health outcomes. In the meantime, let’s keep our eyes on the prize and embrace the fact that sometimes, less is not more. In the case of genetic variants, more can truly be a wonderful thing!

Original Source

Title: Integrating Common and Rare Variants Improves Polygenic Risk Prediction Across Diverse Populations

Abstract: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) predict complex traits by aggregating genetic effects across the genome, yet most models focus on common variants, overlooking rare variants that may contribute to hidden heritability. We developed RICE, a new PRS framework integrating both common and rare variants to improve genetic risk prediction across diverse ancestries. RICE constructs separate PRSs: for common variants, it integrates methods using ensemble learning; for rare variants, it uses gene-level testing with functional annotations and penalized regression. We evaluated RICE using simulated datasets and sequencing data from UK Biobank and All of Us, involving up to 740 million genetic variants from 361,939 individuals across diverse ancestries and 11 complex traits. In real data analysis, RICE improved predictive accuracy by an average of 25.7% compared to leading common variant PRS methods. Our findings demonstrate that incorporating rare variants significantly enhances PRS, providing a more accurate and inclusive approach to genetic risk prediction.

Authors: Jacob Williams, Tony Chen, Xing Hua, Wendy Wong, Kai Yu, Peter Kraft, Xihao Li, Haoyu Zhang

Last Update: 2024-11-05 00:00:00

Language: English

Source URL: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.05.24316779

Source PDF: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.05.24316779.full.pdf

Licence: https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

Changes: This summary was created with assistance from AI and may have inaccuracies. For accurate information, please refer to the original source documents linked here.

Thank you to medrxiv for use of its open access interoperability.

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