New Insights into Ovarian Cancer Growth Rates
Research sheds light on challenges in early detection of ovarian cancer.
Bharath Narayanan, Thomas Buddenkote, Hayley Smith, Mitul Shah, Susan Freeman, David Hulse, Gabriel Funingana, Marie-Lyne Alcaraz, Mireia-Crispin Ortuzar, James Brenton, Paul Pharoah, Nora Pashayan
― 6 min read
Table of Contents
Ovarian cancer is a serious issue for many women, especially since most are diagnosed when the disease is already advanced. This means the chances of surviving for five years are pretty slim, particularly compared to those who catch it early. One of the main types of this cancer is High-grade Serous Ovarian Cancer (HGSOC). This form is responsible for the majority of cases that are diagnosed late and lead to death.
HGSOC usually starts in the fallopian tubes and can spread to the ovaries and other areas without causing noticeable symptoms. Because of this sneaky nature, it’s tough to catch early. Experts are trying to come up with ways to find HGSOC sooner in hopes of saving lives. However, many recent studies show that current screening methods aren’t very effective. For instance, a major trial in the UK found that just because more women were diagnosed earlier, it didn’t mean fewer died from the disease. Another trial in the US also found no meaningful difference in survival rates from using ultrasound screenings.
So why is it so hard to catch this cancer early? Well, it appears that by the time doctors can see it, it may already be too late for many patients. The growth rate of these lesions, or areas of disease, and when they start spreading play a big role in how successful screening can be. Unfortunately, HGSOC is very aggressive, making it tricky for researchers to get enough data to understand how fast it grows. Some scientists are using math models to estimate how quickly Tumors grow based on limited information.
One study looked at tumor sizes found during surgeries performed to prevent cancer and concluded that they could estimate how fast these tumors were doubling in size. Other researchers used various models to analyze cancer growth based on existing data but faced challenges, such as the fact that a common blood test is not always a good indicator of how much cancer is present.
Gathering Strong Data
In this recent research, scientists wanted to fill in the gaps and take a closer look at how fast tumors grow by examining data from actual patients. They looked at 37 women who had HGSOC and analyzed images of their tumors over time. They focused on the ovaries and the omentum, which is an area of the abdomen where this cancer often spreads.
These scientists sourced patient data from a study designed to investigate how women with ovarian cancer respond to treatment. They found 69 candidates with multiple CT Scans of their tumors. After applying some strict criteria, they whittled it down to 44 cases that were suitable for further analysis.
The Tech Behind the Scenes
To analyze the images, the team utilized a fancy AI tool designed specifically for detecting these cancers in CT scans. This tool was pretty impressive in its ability to identify and segment tumor growth, showing performance equal to that of a junior radiologist, which is like saying it did a good job but could still use some training.
Measuring Growth and Making Estimates
When it came to calculating how much the tumors grew, the researchers used a method that ensures they only looked at the most significant increases in size. They wanted to avoid any misleading results from tiny changes that could just be errors in measurement. The aim was to find how quickly these tumors were doubling in size, which could give insight into how aggressive they were being.
Next, they used a specific growth model that better represents how tumors grow over time. Instead of assuming a steady growth rate (which isn’t always realistic), they employed a model that accounts for the fact that tumors grow more slowly as they get bigger.
Analyzing Patient Data
The research team then utilized the data to figure out how long it takes from when the cancer starts to when it’s first detected by doctors. They were able to estimate that ovarian lesions took about 21 months to show up, while those in the omentum took about 18 months. This is a lot shorter than estimates that relied on simpler methods, which suggested much longer periods.
Time to Catch the Cancer
The team also calculated the time gap between when the primary tumor and any secondary tumors started forming. They found that in a few cases, the secondary tumors might start growing before the primary ones reached levels that are detectable by current screening methods. This highlights a significant issue: even when tumors are detected, it might already be too late to make a difference.
In their simulations of a larger group of 10,000 patients, it became clear that only about 67% of patients could be diagnosed before the cancer had already spread. The findings suggest that the time window to detect these tumors is quite limited, which means that many cases will be missed with current screening practices.
Real-Life Applications
The researchers were keen to stress the importance of their findings. They pointed out that catching ovarian cancer early is crucial, but it may prove very difficult with the current screening techniques. They hope that their work will provide new insights into how to catch these cancers earlier and improve the chances of successful treatment.
Understanding the Challenges
While the study offered some hope, it also came with several caveats. Given the small sample size and specific methods used, the results may not apply to all women with ovarian cancer. Additionally, while the scientists applied advanced models to estimate Growth Rates, they still faced inherent challenges in working with fast-growing cancers.
Cancer is tricky; fast-growing types often leave researchers scrambling to gather data because they can spread so quickly. The researchers believe that more measurements over time could improve the accuracy of their findings, but that would require a larger patient pool and longer observation periods.
Conclusion: The Takeaway
In summary, researchers are working hard to uncover how ovarian cancer develops and spreads, especially the aggressive HGSOC type. By examining patient data and applying sophisticated models, they uncovered valuable information about tumor growth rates and the difficulties facing current screening methods.
As the saying goes, timing is everything, and in the battle against ovarian cancer, catching it early can make all the difference. But with the current tools on hand, that’s proving to be a tough nut to crack. Perhaps one day, advancements in technology and methods will lead to better early detection and improved outcomes for women facing this challenging diagnosis. Until then, raising awareness and pushing for better research remains vital.
Original Source
Title: Growth kinetics of high-grade serous ovarian cancer using longitudinal clinical data - implications for early detection
Abstract: High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is the most lethal gynaecological cancer with patients routinely diagnosed at advanced stages with widespread disease. Evidence from screening trials indicates that early diagnosis may not reduce cancer-related deaths, possibly due to an underestimation of the true extent of the disease at screening. We aim to characterise the growth kinetics of HGSOC to understand why early detection has failed so far and under what conditions it might prove fruitful. We analysed a dataset of 597 patients with a confirmed HGSOC diagnosis, and identified 37 cases with serial CT scans. We calculated the growth rates of lesions in the ovaries/pelvis and the omentum and estimated the time to metastasis using a population-level Gompertz model. Finally, we simulated ultrasound and CA125 based screening in a virtual population of patients. Growing lesions in the ovaries and the omentum doubled in volume every 2.3 months and 2 months respectively. At both sites, smaller lesions grew faster than larger ones. The 12 cases with growing lesions in both disease sites had a median interval of 11.5 months between disease initiation and the onset of metastasis. Our simulations suggested that over 33% of patients would develop metastases before they could be screen detected. The remaining patients provided a median window of opportunity of only 4.7 months to detect the tumours before they metastasised. Our results suggest that HGSOC lesions have short time to metastasis intervals, preventing effective early detection using current screening approaches.
Authors: Bharath Narayanan, Thomas Buddenkote, Hayley Smith, Mitul Shah, Susan Freeman, David Hulse, Gabriel Funingana, Marie-Lyne Alcaraz, Mireia-Crispin Ortuzar, James Brenton, Paul Pharoah, Nora Pashayan
Last Update: 2024-11-29 00:00:00
Language: English
Source URL: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.18.24317171
Source PDF: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.11.18.24317171.full.pdf
Licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Changes: This summary was created with assistance from AI and may have inaccuracies. For accurate information, please refer to the original source documents linked here.
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