The Cosmic Ray Mystery of 2017
A deep dive into the unusual cosmic ray event of 2017.
O. P. M. Aslam, D. MacTaggart, R. Battiston, M. S. Potgieter, M. D. Ngobeni
― 6 min read
Table of Contents
- What Happened in 2017?
- What is a Forbush Decrease?
- Investigating the Cause
- The Minicycle Hypothesis
- The Solar Activity Hypothesis
- The Role of CMEs and Solar Winds
- Gathering Data
- The Proton Flux Variations
- Comparing the 1974 Minicycle and 2017 Depression
- Conclusion on the 2017 Cosmic Ray Event
- The Importance of Understanding Cosmic Rays
- Final Thoughts
- A Little Humor
- Original Source
- Reference Links
Cosmic rays are high-energy particles that travel through space and can reach Earth. While most cosmic rays come from the Sun, a significant amount comes from outside our solar system. These particles can affect various systems, including technology and the environment. The flow of cosmic rays can change due to several factors, primarily driven by solar activity.
What Happened in 2017?
In 2017, there was a notable event involving cosmic rays. As the Sun approached a time of minimal activity, a significant drop in the number of cosmic ray protons was recorded. This drop lasted for about half a year, which was quite unusual and unexpected. Typically, such decreases, called Forbush Decreases, are short-lived, often only lasting a few days. Scientists were puzzled by this prolonged depression in the cosmic ray counts.
What is a Forbush Decrease?
A Forbush decrease is a temporary drop in cosmic ray intensity observed when the solar wind is particularly strong, often during solar eruptions. This phenomenon happens because the solar wind's magnetic fields can push cosmic rays away from Earth, causing a short-term reduction in their levels. However, the cosmic ray decrease in 2017 was much longer than what is usually seen, which raised many questions.
Investigating the Cause
To understand what caused this unusual depression in cosmic rays, scientists looked into two main possibilities. The first idea was that there was a temporary shift in the Sun's magnetic activity, sometimes referred to as a minicycle. The second idea involved examining the impact of solar events like coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interactions between Solar Winds.
The Minicycle Hypothesis
A minicycle is a term used to describe a short change in the Sun's magnetic field. People who study this field have seen similar patterns before, notably in a 1974 event that lasted for about a year. In that case, researchers connected the minicycle with changes in the Sun’s global magnetic field. They noted that these changes happened without an increase in solar activity. The question arose: could the same thing have occurred in 2017?
The Solar Activity Hypothesis
The solar activity hypothesis suggests that the observed cosmic ray decrease was due to multiple solar phenomena, including CMEs and regions where solar winds interacted with slower solar wind. CMEs are large bursts of solar wind and magnetic fields rising above the solar corona. These events can create obstructions for cosmic rays, leading to a decrease in their levels on Earth.
The Role of CMEs and Solar Winds
CMEs can be like large magnets in space. When they head towards Earth, they can interact with cosmic rays, causing a drop in their intensity. There are also corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which occur when fast solar wind catches up with slower solar winds. These interactions can lead to additional dips in cosmic ray levels.
The interesting twist in 2017 was that the CMEs responsible for the cosmic ray dip all came from the same very active area on the Sun. This kind of behavior was not expected as the Sun was approaching a quiet period known as solar minimum.
Gathering Data
To delve deeper into the mystery, scientists analyzed data from various sources, tracking cosmic ray levels and solar activity. They looked at Proton Flux levels, measured over different periods, to see how they varied with changes in solar activity. This analysis helped identify which solar events were likely responsible for the observed cosmic ray dip.
The Proton Flux Variations
Proton flux refers to the number of protons detected per unit area over a given time. During the second half of 2017, researchers found that the proton flux dropped significantly over several months. This was documented using data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02), which is stationed on the International Space Station.
The data showed that the depression lasted long enough to indicate it was more than just a brief reaction to a single solar event. Instead, it pointed towards a combination of solar activities working together over time to create this protracted effect.
Comparing the 1974 Minicycle and 2017 Depression
While the idea of a minicycle has a history of being linked to the Sun's magnetic behavior, the evidence from 2017 suggested that solar activity could not be ignored. The patterns from 1974 indicated a clean separation between magnetic changes and solar events. However, the 2017 observations showed that strong solar activity had taken place, suggesting that the two could be connected.
Conclusion on the 2017 Cosmic Ray Event
In summary, the significant cosmic ray depression observed in 2017 was linked to a combination of different solar events. While some data hinted at minicycle-like behavior, the overall evidence favored the notion that various CMEs and solar wind interactions were primarily responsible. This event highlighted the complex relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays, revealing how one can significantly impact the other.
The Importance of Understanding Cosmic Rays
Understanding cosmic rays is essential for a variety of fields, including space exploration, aviation, and even everyday activities on Earth. High-energy particles can affect technology, including satellites and other communication systems. They can also pose risks to astronauts in space, making it crucial to model and predict cosmic ray behavior accurately.
As we look to the future, the study of cosmic rays will continue. Future research may explore other cosmic particles and their modulation, leading to better protection strategies and a deeper understanding of the universe's workings.
Final Thoughts
In the cosmic world, surprises are the norm, and events like the one experienced in 2017 remind us just how dynamic our sun and space can be. While we might not have all the answers, the pursuit of knowledge in this field brings us closer to unraveling the mysteries of the cosmos, one proton at a time. So next time you hear about cosmic rays, just remember: they might just be the universe's way of keeping us on our toes!
A Little Humor
Now, if cosmic rays were people, they would probably be the quiet ones at the party until the Sun lets off a little steam! Imagine them bouncing around, trying to figure out why they suddenly feel less popular. "Where did all the fun go?" they might ask. Well, cosmic rays, just like us, sometimes have to deal with the whims of the solar winds!
Title: The source of the 2017 cosmic ray half-year modulation event
Abstract: In 2017, as the solar cycle approached solar minimum, an unusually long and large depression was observed in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) protons, detected with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02), lasting for the second half of that year. The depression, as seen in the Bartel rotation-averaged proton flux, has the form of a Forbush decrease (FD). Despite this resemblance, however, the cause of the observed depression does not have such a simple explanation as FDs, due to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), typically last for a few days at 1 AU rather than half a year. In this work, we seek the cause of the observed depression and investigate two main possibilities. First, we consider a mini-cycle - a temporary change in the solar dynamo that changes the behavior of the global solar magnetic field and, by this, the modulation of GCRs. Secondly, we investigate the behavior of solar activity, both CMEs and co-rotating/stream interactions regions (C/SIRs), during this period. Our findings show that, although there is some evidence for mini-cycle behavior prior to the depression, the depression is ultimately due to a combination of recurrent CMEs, SIRs and CIRs. A particular characteristic of the depression is that the largest impacts that help to create and maintain it are due to four CMEs from the same, highly active, magnetic source that persists for several solar rotations. This active magnetic source is unusual given the closeness of the solar cycle to solar minimum, which also helps to make the depression more evident.
Authors: O. P. M. Aslam, D. MacTaggart, R. Battiston, M. S. Potgieter, M. D. Ngobeni
Last Update: Dec 19, 2024
Language: English
Source URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14907
Source PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.14907
Licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Changes: This summary was created with assistance from AI and may have inaccuracies. For accurate information, please refer to the original source documents linked here.
Thank you to arxiv for use of its open access interoperability.
Reference Links
- https://www.tug.org/applications/hyperref/manual.html#x1-40003
- https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
- https://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/
- https://wso.stanford.edu/Tilts.html
- https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
- https://izw1.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/level3/icmetable2.html
- https://helioforecast.space/icmecat
- https://space.ustc.edu.cn/dreams/wind_icmes/
- https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/data/ins_data/impact/level3/LanJian_STEREO_CME_List.txt
- https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/data/ins_data/impact/level3/LanJian_STEREO_SIR_List.txt
- https://www.solarmonitor.org/
- https://helio.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/helio-vo/solar_activity/arstats/